StraightForecast

Writing

Commentary from inside the market

Pieces on betting integrity, trading and regulation, written from operational experience rather than observation.

May 2026  ·  Interview  ·  CasinoBeats

The US is asking the wrong question about prediction markets

An extended interview on the structural difference between how regulated jurisdictions categorise sports betting derivatives, and the regulatory architecture now taking shape around event contracts in the United States.

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March 2026  ·  Regulation

Prediction markets: what does effective integrity monitoring look like?

Polymarket wants to be taken seriously as a truth-telling mechanism. When a price moves sharply the night before a vote, the instinct of anyone from regulated betting markets is immediate: someone knows something. Accurate and clean are not the same thing.

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