Independent advisory practice · Guernsey
Building the trust that operators, exchanges and regulators depend on.
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StraightForecast is an independent practice founded by Jonathan Russell. Its starting point was Securities and Futures Authority regulated spread betting at William Hill Index and Ladbrokes Sporting Spreads, trading sporting outcomes as contracts for differences. That remains the closest British antecedent of the event contract markets now taking shape in the United States, and it is why many of the questions being asked there are familiar rather than novel.
The career that followed included building the trading department of the first corporate sports betting operation in Africa, automated in-play and derivative markets at Sportingbet, and a decade as Global Head of Trading at Betway across more than fifty sports and forty licensed territories, followed by board appointments across the group's regulated entities.
It also included three elected terms as Non-Executive Chair of the International Betting Integrity Association, working with the International Olympic Committee, UEFA and the International Tennis Integrity Agency on coordination protocols, and latterly senior advisory work at IC360.
Work
Sportsbook trading consultancy covering trading function design, odds compilation and pricing strategy, automated risk management and exposure frameworks, built from a decade running a sportsbook across fifty sports and forty licensed territories.
Regulated betting market analysis for operators, investors and acquirers, covering market entry, licensing strategy and operator due diligence. Structural review rather than desk research, based on having built operations in most of these markets.
Sports betting integrity consultancy covering match-fixing and competition manipulation, suspicious betting alerts, and the frameworks that turn an alert into a case. Three elected terms chairing the International Betting Integrity Association sit behind this work.
Prediction market integrity and event contract governance, where settlement is final and there is no voiding mechanism. The question is how an outcome is produced in the world and how it reaches settlement. Includes CFTC rulemaking and regulatory positioning.
Non-executive director and board advisory work, and expert witness instruction in betting market conduct, sportsbook operations and integrity matters, where a position has to survive examination by people paid to dismantle it.
Services
Typically where a market, control framework or regulatory position has to withstand scrutiny. Recent work has included alert escalation, manipulation susceptibility, settlement assurance, trading oversight and regulatory comment.
Defined pieces of work for operators, exchanges, regulators, governing bodies, investors and legal teams. Engagements include diagnostic reviews, board briefings, expert reports, regulatory submissions, due diligence work and retained advisory. Most begin with a scoping conversation and a fixed-scope proposal.
Integrity programme design, alert framework development, regulatory liaison and standards compliance. Covers the reporting duties that turn an operator observation into evidence a governing body can act on.
Trading function design, odds compilation, automated risk management, exposure frameworks and multi-jurisdiction operations across fifty sports, pre-match and in-play.
Manipulation susceptibility assessment, pre-listing contract review, settlement source assurance and surveillance architecture for venues where settlement is final.
Drafting and filing of regulatory submissions, consultation responses and position papers. Includes comments filed with the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission in July 2026.
Structural market review, channelisation analysis, regulatory landscape mapping and operator-level due diligence on trading, risk and integrity posture. Pre-deal, in-deal and post-acquisition.
Independent expert evidence for civil, regulatory and disciplinary proceedings involving betting market conduct, sportsbook operations, integrity matters and trading standards. Available to legal teams, regulators and sports bodies.
Independent director and board-level work for regulated operators, technology providers and Guernsey-domiciled entities. Governance, integrity oversight and risk committee participation.
Executive education and trader development for operators, regulators and governing bodies. Odds compiling, probability, margin management, manipulation typologies and monitoring methodology.
Keynote addresses, panel chairing and moderation for industry events, regulatory forums and academic institutions. Moderating an integrity panel at NEXTPredict, New York, October 2026.
Record
| 2019 – 2025 | Non-Executive Chair, elected three terms | International Betting Integrity Association |
| 2023 – 2024 | Director | Betway Group and subsidiaries |
| 2013 – 2023 | Global Head of Trading | Betway |
| 2025 | Senior Advisor | IC360 |
| 2000 – 2013 | Head of Football Trading | Sportingbet and Sportingodds.com |
| 1995 – 2000 | Senior Trader and Trading Manager | William Hill Index, Ladbrokes Sporting Spreads, IGN SuperSpreads, Victor Chandler Index, Spreadex |
Filings
Comments filed in the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission rulemaking on prediction markets. All are on the public docket at comments.cftc.gov.
18 July 2026 · RIN 3038-AF65 · 91 Fed. Reg. 35,806
Prediction Markets: Public Interest DeterminationsComment on the proposed public interest determination factors, addressing manipulation susceptibility, the misuse of material non-public information, and the absence of any reciprocal obligation on the bodies that control the underlying events. Approximately 2,850 words across nine sections.
18 July 2026 · RIN 3038-AF73 · 91 Fed. Reg. 40,102
Companion comment on sporting event contractsComment addressing the specific integrity questions arising where event contracts settle on sporting outcomes, and the interface between venue-held trading data and the disciplinary processes of sports governing bodies.
April 2026 · RIN 3038-AF65 · 91 Fed. Reg. 12,516
Prediction Markets: Advance Notice of Proposed RulemakingJoint comment with Elie Mishory on the Commission's advance notice, addressing the statutory core principles as they apply to event contracts and the integrity architecture a prediction market requires. Full text published here.
Speaking
| Sept 2026 | SBC Summit, Lisbon | Moderating World Cup vs sportsbook regulation, Regulation and Compliance stage |
| Oct 2026 | NEXTPredict, New York | Moderating the integrity panel, with Dentons |
| Nov 2026 | Prediction Markets Conference, Las Vegas | Speaking on market surveillance and information security |
| Nov 2026 | Prediction Markets Summit Europe, Gibraltar | Speaker, prediction market integrity and governance |
| Mar 2027 | Regulating the Game, Sydney | Presentation on the regulatory classification of prediction markets |
| 2019 – 2025 | International Betting Integrity Association | Chair, industry and regulatory forums |
Available for keynote, panel and moderation. Enquiries →
Writing and press
September 2026 · Prediction markets and regulation
The wisdom of the crowd cuts both waysSeven filings came in from the sports side before the CFTC comment file closed on 27 July, submitted separately by organisations with distinct commercial positions and separate counsel. They converged on the same integrity architecture. The proposed rule rewards having that architecture rather than operating it.
Read the full piece →August 2026 · Integrity and detection
The six-alert continentAfrica recorded six suspicious betting alerts in a quarter. Turkey found 371 referees with betting accounts in a single database join. The gap between those figures is measurement, and closing it needs a licence condition rather than a central register.
Read the full piece →June 2026 · iGaming Business
How to keep Africa's gambling boom onshoreOn channelisation across African markets: legislation drafted for land-based gaming has not caught up with consumers betting online at scale, and the real competition for a licensed operator is the informal local bookmaker offering the same accumulator with simpler cash mechanics.
Read on iGaming Business →May 2026 · Interview · CasinoBeats
The US is asking the wrong question about prediction marketsAn extended interview on the structural difference between how regulated jurisdictions categorise sports betting derivatives, and the architecture now taking shape around event contracts in the United States.
Read on CasinoBeats →March 2026 · Regulation
Prediction markets: what does effective integrity monitoring look like?When a price moves sharply the night before a vote, the instinct of anyone from regulated betting markets is immediate. Accurate and clean are not the same thing.
Read the full piece →January 2025 · EGR North America
IC360 appoints ex-Betway global head of trading as senior advisorCoverage of the IC360 Senior Advisor appointment, an engagement concluded in 2025.
Read on EGR →Contact
For advisory enquiries, expert witness instruction or speaking engagements. All enquiries treated in confidence.
St Peter Port, Guernsey · Available worldwide